Arzu Alvan

Monetary Actions Towards Inflation in Turkey: a Critical Evaluation Arzu Alvan

In Turkish economy, current inflation rate is the result of accumulation of past experiences. Namely, current inflation rate is determined by recent cost and demand dynamics along with the expectations of agents with a time lag. One of the major findings of this study is that, according to the Granger- Causality Analysis utilized in the econometric part of this thesis, in Turkish economy, actually the increase in inflation rate leads to increase in money demand that leads to increase in M2 money supply, which is the source of further price increases. If these factors determining the current inflation rate persist in the future, there is no doubt that the future inflation will be no different from the present and the past.