Igor Stukanov

Profitability of simple fixed strategies in sport betting Igor Stukanov

A simple fixed strategy is a strategy to bet the same fixed amount of money on a particular event, for example that a home team wins, for all games in a pre-selected group of games. In this book calculations of profitability of fixed strategies in soccer for 2009-2019 English Premier League seasons are presented. All games are divided on groups, based on implied probabilities or which team is a home team or an away team. For each group profitability (return on investment) is calculated for each season. For example, if we look into the table with games where Arsenal was an away team, we can see that betting on home teams in 2017-2018 season would give us over +109% return on all bets. If we look into the table with games where average implied probabilities for a home team to win are in the range of [70%,80%], we see that betting on away teams would give us over +111% return on all bets in 2010-2011 season.